Forecasting the Judicial Reorganization of Companies in Brazil:
An Empirical Investigation

RESUMO

Este trabalho contribui com a literatura ao investigar o
fenômeno da recuperação judicial no Brasil, entre os anos de 2013
a 2018, identificando fatores chaves que explicam o processo
requisitório de recuperações judiciais. Especificamente, a presente
pesquisa tem como finalidade responder à seguinte pergunta: para
o caso brasileiro, quais são as variáveis relevantes para prever um
pedido de recuperação judicial? Nesse sentido, foram
desenvolvidos dois modelos empíricos preditivos, sendo um
modelo de Cox e outro modelo logístico. Os resultados dessa
pesquisa evidenciaram a aplicabilidade e eficácia dos dois
métodos, ainda que constatada superioridade do modelo logístico,
enquanto método preditor da recuperação judicial no Brasil, o qual
se alicerça em indicadores de liquidez, de rentabilidade, de
endividamento e de rotatividade no processo de previsão.

Palavras-chave: recuperação judicial; bancarrota; previsão.

Abstract

This paper investigates the phenomenon of judicial
reorganization in Brazil between the years 2013 to 2018, identifying
key factors that explain the process of judicial reorganization.
Specifically, this research answers to the following question: for the
Brazilian case, what are the relevant variables to forecast judicial
reorganization? Thus, it seeks to put down an existing gap, since no
work has been found in the literature dealing with the forecast of
judicial reorganization in Brazil. This research is justified by the
following factors: relevance and growth of judicial reorganization,
seen from the perspective of the Brazilian reorganization law; the
scarce empirical literature that deals with judicial reorganization in
Brazil; the importance of the existence of quantitative models that
explain with high precision the judicial reorganization of companies
in Brazil. This research advances the frontier on judicial recovery in
Brazil and increases the empirical knowledge about the applicability
of Brazilian Law 11.101/2005. To answer the question above, two
predictive models were developed, comparing them, a Cox model
and a logistic model. The results show the use and effectiveness of
both methods, although highlights the superiority of the logistic
model as the predictive method of judicial reorganization in Brazil,
based in indicators of liquidity, profitability, indebtedness and
rotativity.

Keywords: judicial reorganization; bankruptcy; forecast.